Forecasting Applications for Strategic Management 530

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If you're taking Strategic MAnagement 530, here is a great overview of the forecasting applications assignment:

As per Highline Financial Services, LTD, I will separate each category of service in one table

A

First Year				Second Year
1st Quarter	2nd Quarter	3rd Quarter	4th Quarter	1st Quarter	2nd Quarter	3rd Quarter	4th Quarter
60	45	100	75	72	51	112	85

B

First Year				Second Year
1st Quarter	2nd Quarter	3rd Quarter	4th Quarter	1st Quarter	2nd Quarter	3rd Quarter	4th Quarter
95	85	92	65	85	75	85	50

C

First Year				Second Year
1st Quarter	2nd Quarter	3rd Quarter	4th Quarter	1st Quarter	2nd Quarter	3rd Quarter	4th Quarter
93	90	110	90	102	75	110	100

Now, let us see the difference for each quarter between the first and second year in the tables below,

A

The Difference ( First Year – Second Year)
1st Quarter	2nd Quarter	3rd Quarter	4th Quarter
12	6	12	10

B

The Difference ( First Year – Second Year)
1st Quarter	2nd Quarter	3rd Quarter	4th Quarter
-10	-10	-7	-15

  

C

The Difference ( Second Year – First Year)
1st Quarter	2nd Quarter	3rd Quarter	4th Quarter
9	-15	0	10

Finally, let us see my forecast of the third year base on the differences above by adding them to the second year’s numbers in the tables below,

A

Forecast of Third Year ((First Year – Second Year) + Second Year))
1st Quarter	2nd Quarter	3rd Quarter	4th Quarter
84	57	124	95

B

Forecast of Third Year ((First Year – Second Year) + Second Year))
1st Quarter	2nd Quarter	3rd Quarter	4th Quarter
75	65	78	35

C

Forecast of Third Year ((First Year – Second Year) + Second Year))
1st Quarter	2nd Quarter	3rd Quarter	4th Quarter
111	60	110	110

In order to make these tables more clearly, I will illustrate them for the decision makers in clustered cones below,

As we can see in the above clustered cones that the demand of service A is increasing each year, on the other hand, the demand of service B is decreasing each year while the demand of service C is  fluctuating but, it hasn't come down below the demand of service B

At the end, Highline Financial Services, Ltd. Must take care of the demand of service B and study all the reasons behind this declined that could be the bad service or any other reasons

References

Choudhury, D. K. (2018). Market demand forecast method selection and application: A case study in Hero MotoCorp Ltd. IUP Journal of Operations Management, 17(2), 7-22.

Liao, Y. P., & Chiu, S. K. (2017). Advantage of make-to-stock strategy based on linear mixed-effect model: A comparison with regression, autoregressive, times series, and exponential smoothing models. Croatian Operational Research Review, 8, 357-376.

Forecasting Accuracy

            https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5IyPFyD4_Xk

Stevenson, W. (2018). Operations management (13th ed.). New York, NY: McGraw-Hill Irwin.